UNSEEN-open¶

In this project, the aim is to build an open, reproducible, and transferable workflow for UNSEEN.

This means that anyone can assess any climate extreme event anywhere in the world!

The workflow consists of four steps, as illustrated below:

title

Overview¶

Here we provide an overview of the steps in UNSEEN-open.

Retrieve¶

We use global open Copernicus C3S data: the seasonal prediction system SEAS5 and the reanlysis ERA5.

The functions to retrieve all forecasts (SEAS5) and reanalysis (ERA5) are retrieve_SEAS5 and retrieve_ERA5. You can select the climate variable, the target month(s) and the area - for more explanation see retrieve.

[2]:

retrieve.retrieve_SEAS5(
    variables=['2m_temperature', '2m_dewpoint_temperature'],
    target_months=[3, 4, 5],
    area=[70, -11, 30, 120],
    years=np.arange(1981, 2021),
    folder='../Siberia_example/SEAS5/')

[3]:

retrieve.retrieve_ERA5(variables=['2m_temperature', '2m_dewpoint_temperature'],
                       target_months=[3, 4, 5],
                       area=[70, -11, 30, 120],
                       folder='../Siberia_example/ERA5/')

Preprocess¶

In the preprocessing step, we first merge all downloaded files into one netcdf file. Then the rest of the preprocessing depends on the definition of the extreme event. For example, for the UK case study, we want to extract the UK average precipitation while for the Siberian heatwave we will just used the defined area to spatially average over. For the MAM season, we still need to take the seasonal average, while for the UK we already have the average February precipitation.

Read the docs on preprocessing for more info.

Evaluate¶

The evaluation step is important to assess whether the forecasts are realistic and consistent to the observations. There are three statistical tests available through the UNSEEN R package. See the evaluation section and also this paper for more info.

Illustrate¶

So what can we learn from UNSEEN-open?

In this section we apply extreme value theory to illustrate the applications. Have a look at the examples!